Stay tuned: The tumult of 2024 leaves real estate on a cliffhanger

Three and a half decades ago, TV experienced one of its greatest cliffhangers.

The year was 1990 and Star Trek: The Next Generation was a juggernaut. At the helm of the show was Patrick Stewart’s Captain Picard, a pillar of sound leadership and moral rectitude.

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In the show’s third season finale, the zombie-like Borg abducted Picard and turned him into one of their own. The finale ends with Picard as a Borg telling his now-former crew that they, too, will be turned into automatons. Picard’s right-hand man gives the order to destroy the Borg, then the credits roll.

Viewers had to wait months to find out if Picard or any of the Trek cast would survive (Spoiler: They did).

The moment was revolutionary in the pre-streaming era, and decades later, it’s still described as the best cliffhanger in TV history.

But it’s worth bringing up here because it offers a kind of metaphor for what happened to the real estate industry in 2024. Thanks to legal action, government pressure, a rough market and other forces, real estate has faced one of the roughest and most disruptive years in living memory.

But also, like an action-packed TV show, it’s not really clear right now where the story is headed. Will buyers abandon agents? Will the government bring down the hammer? Will lawsuits destroy the status quo? Is resistance futile?

Inman has in recent weeks set out to answer many of these questions in our ongoing year-end coverage. But also, many questions simply lack answers. The past 12 months have been filled with tumult, but what that tumult means or where it leads is still to be determined.

In other words, real estate finds itself in a scenario not unlike the one in that old Star Trek finale. As 2024 draws to a close, the industry has ended up with a cliffhanger.

So with that in mind, here are the biggest stories that dominated 2024 — and which still have us on the edge of our seats.

Commission litigation dominated

When everything is said and done, there was really just one story that eclipsed all others in 2024: antitrust commission litigation. You probably know the broad strokes, but to refresh: homesellers in recent years filed lawsuits accusing industry players of keeping costs high, and a jury sided with those homesellers last year.

But the story took a turn in 2024. Most notably, NAR settled its case in the homeseller lawsuits in March, agreeing to pay $418 million and make various policy changes. Those rule changes went into effect in August, and NAR’s settlement notched its final approval last month. The NAR settlement covered smaller brokerages, with various larger brokerages settling over the course of the year.

So, case closed right?

Wrong.

Indeed, the commission lawsuits may represent the biggest cliffhanger real estate has ever faced. Right now, outstanding questions remain over the fate of appeals and the longer-term response of both regulators and the public.

Russ Cofano

Leaders who spoke to Inman agreed that there are many more chapters to this story. For example, Russ Cofano — an industry veteran and CEO of Collabra Technology — described 2024 as a “point of inflection for the industry.”

“I think it will be looked at historically as being a significant catalyst year in terms of changing business practices for the industry,” he said. “I think we’re going to see some changes that actually come about in the years to come.”

Rob Hahn

Real estate strategist Rob Hahn offered a similar interpretation, describing 2024 as “the year that changed everything” — but adding that it was “the introduction of the first chapter” of real estate’s next act.

“I would say this is like the first chapter of the new book,” Hahn added.

These characterizations were common among leaders who spoke to Inman. And so the point is not to answer every remaining question, but rather to note that the questions remain. We’re in a two-part episode (at least) and we have to wait for the next season for the conclusion.

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Consolidation looms

Commission lawsuits represent real estate’s biggest cliffhanger heading out of 2024, but there are plenty of others — and Compass epitomizes one of the biggest. Part of that has to do with CEO Robert Reffkin leading the charge to end NAR’s Clear Cooperation Policy (more on that below).

But also, it’s because Compass made huge acquisitions this year. In the spring, for example, Compass picked up Latter & Blum. Then, earlier this month, the brokerage made even bigger news by revealing that it had acquired @properties Christie’s International Real Estate.

This brings up basically two issues. The first is simply that Compass had a good year. Indeed, in conversations with various industry executives for this story, Compass consistently came up more than any other brokerage. And so one of the things to watch for in 2025 is how well Compass can maintain its winning streak.

But second, Compass’ moves are indicative of a larger trend toward consolidation. Consider after all that it was only three years ago that @properties itself acquired Christie’s. Compass coming in and getting the combined brands is reminiscent of mergers in the food industry, which in recent decades have left just a few big names standing. That’s why Pepsi makes Lays potato chips, and why Nestlé makes DiGiorno pizza.

Jason Aleem

The real estate industry has a long way to go before it consolidates to the same extent as the food industry. But again and again, consolidation came up in conversations as both a theme of 2024 and something to watch for in 2025.

“I do think that there will be more and more consolidation,” Jason Aleem, Redfin’s chief of real estate services, said in a conversation earlier this month.

“I think we’re going to see a lot of consolidation, a lot of opportunities, a lot of companies being sold or coming together,” Chris Heller, president of OJO/Movoto, told Inman last month.

Howard “Hoby” Hanna III

“We’re very aggressive and bullish right now in terms of M&A,” Hoby Hanna, CEO of Howard Hanna, said.

This is but a sampling of similar commentary Inman collected lately. And the basic gist of the argument is that the disruption of 2024 could give an edge to companies with larger scale. But it remains to be seen who will be acquired — or, if you will, assimilated — by whom.

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The consumer question

Another big question right now has to do with consumers’ next moves.

So far, polling from Inman Intel suggests that most buyers are not negotiating low fees with their agents and that most sellers are not averse to paying buyers’ brokers. So, the status quo persists — something that is itself a major takeaway from 2024.

Still, Intel findings also indicate that there’s growing downward pressure on commissions and that sellers at least now know that they don’t have to pay buyers’ agent fees. On top of that, millions of postcards, emails and other notices have gone out to consumers about the settlements, further raising awareness about the situation. And critically, real estate professionals who responded to Intel polling this fall indicated that it’s too early to tell how consumers might respond.

So, cliffhanger. To be continued.

Ben Bear

In conversations with Inman, some leaders predicted that the future may look relatively similar to the present, but there are other possible permutations as well. One, floated by TurboHome CEO Ben Bear, is that the NAR settlement could drive buyers to discount or flat-fee brokers.

“That thesis is proving true,” Bear told Inman. “So, we’ve launched in the Bay Area and are rolling out in Texas and Washington State as well. And have done about $18 million in transactions in two months.”

It’s worth noting that flat-fee brokerages had a rough run in 2024. For instance, once-buzzy Homie has shrunk and is suing NAR for essentially dooming it. Indeed, the struggles of flat-fee brokerages and other techie housing concepts (see also: iBuying) was a significant subplot of 2024. But Bear at least argued to Inman that the NAR settlement will raise consumer awareness of how agents get paid, potentially pushing people to try newer models.

That’s just one theory, though Bear was not the only person to bring this up. For example, when Inman asked Hahn if commission litigation might give rise to discount brokerages, he replied, “Absolutely.” Hahn — who unlike Bear does not run a discounter — also speculated that traditional brokerages might eventually adopt characteristics traditionally associated with discount brokerages.

It’s also worth noting here that 2024 is proving to be one of the worst years for home sales in decades, and that mortgage rates have not fallen in the way many had hoped. So one of 2024’s biggest cliffhangers is how numerous moving parts — rates, inventory, litigation, new models and more — might reshape consumer behavior.

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The National Association of Realtors’ rough ride

Though NAR’s commission litigation consumed industry attention in 2024, a slew of other issues related to the trade organization also made headlines — and remain unresolved. Arguably the biggest is NAR’s battle with the DOJ, which the trade organization wants the Supreme Court to adjudicate. Few leaders had any idea where that story goes next.

“I don’t think anybody really knows where the DOJ’s head is at,” Cofano, capturing a common sentiment, said. “And if they say that they do, I think they’re just blowing smoke.”

It’s also important to remember that the DOJ is an even bigger wildcard than usual because Donald Trump won November’s presidential election and will thus appoint new leadership at the agency. Most leaders who spoke to Inman did not think Trump’s victory would entirely eliminate the DOJ’s interest in the real estate industry. But many did speculate that Trump’s win could alter the NAR-DOJ conflict.

Aside from the DOJ, there’s also a simmering battle right now over NAR’s Clear Cooperation Policy, which requires brokers to put their listings into an NAR-affiliated MLS. This issue sharply divided leaders in 2024. But so far, NAR has not taken any action, meaning the rule’s next act won’t come until next year.

Finally, NAR has faced a steady stream of criticism in 2024 for various governance issues. This story actually began with scandals in 2023. Those scandals eventually led to current NAR President Kevin Sears stepping into his role in January . Sears has spent 2024 traveling the U.S. to reassure members and break down the organization’s stand on things like commission litigation. Sears appears to have steadied the ship somewhat, but NAR has nevertheless faced growing scrutiny lately over issues such as finances and spending.

Amy Lessinger

All of these issues make it look like 2024 put NAR on the ropes, and many who spoke to Inman believe the stage is now set for change.

“Undoubtedly, NAR is at a crossroads,” Amy Lessinger, president of RE/MAX, told Inman. “They are the largest trade organization in the U.S. that has advocated for property rights and supporting real estate professionals. And I think that’s still an important piece of the value they provide. But I think the scrutiny they’ve faced in recent years does highlight the need for meaningful evolution.”

That evolution is yet to come into focus. And that means that, like so many other things in real estate, NAR is ending 2024 on a cliffhanger.

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Email Jim Dalrymple II