Shopify (SHOP 4.70%) may have minted some millionaires by now. It’s been a public company for nearly 10 years, and if you’d invested $10,000 on its first day of trading, you’d have more than $350,000 today.
But even though Shopify isn’t a new company, in many ways, it’s just starting to take off. E-commerce is growing as a percentage of retail sales, and a lot of it is happening on Shopify’s platform.
Can Shopify still be a millionaire-maker stock today?
Right place, right time
Shopify is an e-commerce juggernaut, but it doesn’t actually sell anything online; rather, it provides the infrastructure for its merchant clients to be able to reach customers through digital means, and increasingly, it powers a full omnichannel setup.
As an e-commerce platform, it has some of the largest gross merchandise volume (GMV) in the world. It’s the largest platform in the U.S., with 30% of the market, and it’s No. 4 globally, where it’s making a push to capture greater market share.
Since it’s not actually a retailer, you won’t see it on the list of largest e-commerce retailers. But when you see that Amazon has about 40% of the U.S. e-commerce market and Walmart is No. 2 with about 6%, that’s slightly misleading, because it excludes platforms. Amazon sold $123 billion worth of goods through its online stores and third-party sellers in the fourth quarter, and Shopify processed more than $94 billion in GMV in the same period.
It was one of the earliest e-commerce website providers, and it was well positioned to take off as e-commerce has accelerated. Over the past 10 years, it’s had time to perfect it products, and it now offers a wealth of tools and solutions for all kinds of e-commerce providers.
It’s also expanded to target physical stores, and companies that are looking for an integrated, interconnected experience are finding easy-to-use services on Shopify’s platform. Plus, it’s attractive to many large companies that might only need specific tools as opposed to a full-service web site, and it counts many well-known brands like Reebok and Crate & Barrel as clients.
What the future holds
Shopify continues to demonstrate robust growth. After some lumpiness over the past few years, it looks like it’s now reliably profitable. Revenue increased 31% year over year in Q4, and operating income increased 62%, bringing up the operating margin.
The company is experiencing a confluence of growth drivers right now that make the future look very bright. E-commerce is growing as a percentage of retail sales, and it’s expected to reach 21.4% in 2029, up from 17.3% last year, according to Statista. As the premier U.S. platform, Shopify should benefit from that organic growth.
Trends are also becoming more firmly established in omnichannel strategies. More retailers, both online and offline, are realizing the necessity of having a presence in both spaces, and Shopify provides the full gamut of services in both areas.
It’s also expanding its financial solutions, and its Shop Pay digital payments service is gaining fans and offering real competition to existing providers. Finally, it has a huge opportunity in international growth where growth rates are even higher.
Can it make you a millionaire?
Even if you’d invested $10,000 in Shopify stock on the first day of trading, you wouldn’t be a millionaire today. So while it depends on how much you put into the stock and how long you wait, it’s unlikely that Shopify is going to be that ticket to millionaire status on its own if you buy it today.
However, it offers incredible potential as a growth stock in a diversified portfolio. If you’re planning to buy today and hold for the long term, Shopify could be a valuable part of your investing strategy.
John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Jennifer Saibil has positions in Walmart. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon, Shopify, and Walmart. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
