Is 2024 Trump's Election to Lose? Looking at the State of the Race: Trump Vs. Biden

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The silly season is well and truly underway. At this point, in late February, it looks like former President Donald Trump has the Republican nomination sewn up, barring some catastrophe; and the Democrats, while fretting some about Joe Biden’s visible decline, don’t seem to be making any move to dump him – more on that after we take a look at some 2024 swing-state polls. Poll results are taken from the RealClearPolling compilation, while the 2020 results are from CNN’s 2020 recap.

Also: In this analysis, since I’m looking at trends more than the actual results, I’m not getting into trying to figure out how any electoral shenanigans (and there were doubtless plenty) may have affected the 2020 race; I’m going on the final, certified results, for better or for worse.

Just to get an idea where things are now, on this penultimate day of February, let’s look at some polls in swing states Joe Biden won in 2020.

Wisconsin: In 2020, Joe Biden won this state narrowly, by about 20,000 votes; 49.4% of the vote to Trump’s 48.8%. A poll by The Hill/Emerson has Trump leading Biden by three points in a one-on-one match, with Trump’s lead gaining a point when he is matched against Biden, RFK Jr., Jill Stein, and Cornel West.

Michigan: In 2020, Joe Biden won this state by a wider margin, by roughly 150,000 votes; 50.6% of the vote to Trump’s 47.8%. In a poll, again by The Hill/Emerson, Trump leads by two points in a one-on-one, while again gaining a point when matched against the larger leftist field.

Arizona: In 2020, Joe Biden pulled out a squeaker of a win in this normally red state, winning by roughly 11,000 votes, 49.4% of the vote to Trump’s 49%. The Hill/Emerson has Trump leading Biden by three points, and against the larger field by six points.

Georgia: In 2020, Trump lost Georgia to Joe Biden by roughly 12,000 votes, with Biden taking 49.5% of the vote to Trump’s 49.2%. The Hill/Emerson now has Trump leading Biden in Georgia by six points.

If Democrats didn’t have reason to be nervous a few months ago, they sure as heck do now.

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In 2020, after all the dust settled, the presidential election was certified with Joe Biden taking 306 Electoral College votes to Donald Trump’s 232. If we plug in the 2020 map and move only the swing states mentioned above into the Trump column, with all other states remaining the same as in 2020, we come up with a narrow GOP win, with presumptive nominee Donald Trump taking 269 Electoral College votes to Joe BIden’s 253. That’s hardly a blowout; that’s a nail-biter, and may or may not prove to be outside the margin of fraud. If Trump could take those states and also flip, say, Nevada and Pennsylvania — not impossible, as the same The Hill/Emerson poll puts Trump six points ahead in Nevada and two points ahead in Pennsylvania — that would give him a more comfortable 295-227 win.

But if Joe Biden holds Michigan and Wisconsin — again, not impossible — that hands the Democrat a 279-259 win. Trump, in the current polling, has a narrow lead in those two states, but while leads like that can evaporate overnight, at this point, it sure looks like the momentum is going Trump’s way for now.

While this kind of analysis and speculation is fun, at this stage of the game it’s only that – speculation. It’s a long, long way to Tipperary, folks, and a lot can happen between now and November. But if I were a Democrat and looking to keep the White House in Democrat hands, I’d be sweating Joe Biden’s advancing decrepitude – and trying like hell to find a Democrat candidate to run who isn’t a cackling imbecile, a hair-jelled train wreck, or a daffy old Bolshevik who dresses like a flood victim.

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