2024: The Biden Campaign Knows It's on a Losing Path



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Day by day, poll by poll, embarrassing gaffe by embarrassing gaffe, things just keep getting worse for Joe Biden’s reelection efforts. Now, as the Free Beacon‘s Matthew Continetti informs us, the campaign (that is, whoever is running it; it’s readily apparent that old Joe has very little idea what’s going on) is growing increasingly desperate. Mr. Continetti makes some interesting points.

On February 29, Bloomberg News released another set of swing-state polls showing Donald Trump in the lead. The polls had Trump narrowly ahead of President Joe Biden nationwide, with Trump’s margins in swing states ranging from plus 2 points in Michigan to plus 9 points in North Carolina.

This is now routine. According to the RealClearPolitics average of polls, Trump has held a national lead over Biden since last September. At this writing, he leads in every swing state except Pennsylvania—where he is a single point behind the incumbent. Yes, the polls in GOP primary contests have slightly overestimated Trump’s support. But Trump still won those contests. And his edge in battleground states such as Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada is not slight.

The two impeachments, the 91 counts across 4 indictments, the huge civil penalties, the almost-a-decade-long trail of controversy and scandal, the warnings from former senior officials, the shadow of January 6, 2021—none of it has sidelined Trump. None of it has changed the dynamic of the 2024 presidential race. Biden is losing.

So far, I would caution Mr. Continetti – so far. It’s a long way until Election Day, and a lot can happen between now and then. Predictions are notoriously hard to make, especially about the future, but trends aren’t hard to discern, and the trends aren’t looking good for Joe Biden. With every new poll that surfaces, it’s easy to imagine Donald Trump’s grin growing wider, until by the time the hardcore campaign season starts after Labor Dayassuming Joe Biden lasts that long, which is anything but certainhe will bear a striking resemblance to the Cheshire Cat.

As the president’s campaign says it isn’t worried about the polls, Biden is traveling across the country playing catch-up to Trump. While Biden’s words, when decipherable, suggest confidence, his actions betray weakness. He’s trying to recover lost ground by addressing past mistakes. He won’t admit to error, but he is trying to fix his mess. Biden’s former boss, Barack Obama, famously went on an apology tour. Biden’s on a regrets tour.

It opened on February 16 with his jaunt to East Palestine, Ohio. Biden’s yearlong refusal to visit the site of the Norfolk Southern train wreck was a reminder of general aloofness and weakness with working-class voters. Biden handed his opponents an easy and effective talking point. He obviously came to regret his decision—else he wouldn’t have ever made the trip to a county where Trump won more than 70 percent of the vote in 2020.

The campaign to date is filled with such miscalculations. Joe Biden would seem to be making some of the worst political calculations since Marcus Tullius Cicero said to the Senate of Rome, “Mark Antony is a drunk and a big jerk, and you can cut off my head and hands and nail them to the Rostrum if it isn’t so.” What’s more, some other national Democratsand the electorateseem to know it.


See Related: Even Obama Aides Now Acknowledging Issues With Biden and It May Spell Doom for His Campaign 

Is 2024 Trump’s Election to Lose? Looking at the State of the Race: Trump Vs. Biden


The entire Bloomberg News poll mentioned above may be viewed in their entirety here.

Not only are Joe Biden’s poll results cratering more and more with each new survey, but every time any Democrats – especially Biden Administration spokesdroid Karine Jean-Pierre – is asked about the President’s health, they trot out a predictably phony answer, the silliest of which is “the President takes cognitive tests every day, he doesn’t need to do another.” It doesn’t take a genius to see the kernel of truth in that: Joe Biden is taking a cognitive test with every public appearance, and he’s failing them. Relying on the “I have a note from my doctor” excuse is wearing pretty thin.

While I can’t read mindsnor can I read what passes for minds among Democratsat this point, it’s beginning to look a lot like the strategy is to string old Joe along until the election, and if they can pull out a win, have him stand down the day after the inauguration, so they can sub in Kamala Harris, who (amazingly) is beginning to look like the better choice for Democrats. That’s rather astounding, but it may also be true.

Are the Democrats stringing old Joe along? In a few more months, assuming old Joe makes it past the convention, we’ll know for sure.



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